Poland-Ukraine cooperation as a basic dimension of the Intermarium project

I do not want to offer philosophical or general theoretical approaches to this issue. I want to talk about creating prospects for Ukraine in the next 10-15 years, so I have a very practical and pragmatic report.

• The goal is Ukraine’s geopolitical subjectivity. Today, Ukraine must take advantage of the “geopolitical sponsorship” of the Western superpowers in its confrontation with Russia. However, such relations will not last forever; the West is already getting tired of Ukraine, so it is necessary to develop new directions for creating regional blocs to ensure its own survival.
• The prospects of consolidation in the Baltic-Black Sea region offer some additional, albeit small, chances for Ukraine’s consolidation and development, as European and Euro-Atlantic integration, the most powerful guarantors against the Russian threat, are still remote for Ukraine.

Geopolitical subjectivity is possible if a bloc of countries is formed in which Ukraine will play a significant role, although it may not be dominant.

• Today, the conditions have been created in the Baltic-Black Sea corridor for the creation of such a bloc, which in different countries has been called Intermarium, Intermarium, etc.
• The most important countries in terms of territory, population, resource base, and partly the economy are Ukraine and Poland, and potentially Romania.
• Understanding between Ukraine and Poland is the key to the creation of the Intermarium bloc, and vice versa, misunderstanding makes such a bloc impossible.
• The main incentive for the creation of such a bloc is the threat from Russia.
• Today, Ukraine-Poland cooperation and the Intermarium are perceived by Russia as hostile to itself. Therefore, we can say that we are now in a state of information and hybrid war for Poland with Russia.

 

Ukrainian nationalists must demonstrate their ideological maturity, geopolitical awareness, and forward thinking in order to go beyond the Russian provocation aimed at fomenting the Ukrainian-Polish conflict in which the Kremlin is dragging us. The behavior of the Polish side can be methodologically understood as the behavior of a friend who is “sick,” which is why he should be treated with some leniency, but he remains a friend. We also need to realize that today Ukraine, together with all adequate friends and allies, is waging a war for Poland with the Kremlin, so Ukraine-Poland cooperation should also be assessed as a battlefield where Russia is winning so far.

• The forms of creation of the Intermarium bloc range from the easiest (project cooperation) to the most important (defense or economic union).

Key dimensions: security, economic, infrastructure, and energy projects.

Let’s look at the existing project level of cooperation in the region.

In the context of Ukraine-Poland cooperation, such projects are already being filled with real content, including this one:

• Defense is the most important area for Ukraine today. First and foremost, this means cooperation between defense companies, including joint projects on helicopters, missile and rocket systems, launch vehicles, modernization of existing weapons (tanks and artillery in Ukraine, aviation in Poland), etc.

Cooperation in this area between Poland and Ukraine today is based on the relevant intergovernmental agreement and its annex signed on December 2, 2016. It provides for the following areas of cooperation:

• military communications and information systems;
• conducting research and development for the needs of the armed forces;
• defense policy and planning; logistics support of the armed forces;
• military engineering and technical works; military infrastructure;
• development, modernization, manufacturing and supply of defense equipment, cooperation in the defense industry;
• operations of special forces;
• other areas of cooperation by mutual agreement of the Parties.

 

There are already projects in place to manufacture drones, use Polish optics and fire guidance systems, radio reconnaissance and communications, personnel equipment, etc., and Ukrainian technologies in the aviation, missile and space industries. It makes sense to strengthen the capabilities of joint defense products in the markets of third countries, primarily in Asia and Africa, which have arsenals of old Soviet military equipment.

LitPolUkrBrig.

The existence of a joint military unit is the first step toward creating a common defense alliance. Today, the brigade is adopting NATO standards and interacting with the militaries of Poland and Lithuania. Continued development in this area will provide additional guarantees for the countries participating in the project.

 

• Economics.

In 2017, there was a peak in the supply of Polish goods to Ukraine. Our countries need to revive trade, develop joint value-added economic projects, and have interesting joint projects, including the creation of processing plants for Ukrainian raw materials, primarily agricultural ones.

 

– Infrastructure.

Increasing the capacity of the Ukrainian-Polish border and building transport interconnection. Today, there are 14 border crossing points between Ukraine and Poland: 8 road and 6 railroad crossing points. However, there is a need to double the number of such crossing points. Increased cross-border cooperation will bring direct benefits in relations, trade, and people-to-people contacts.

 

The extension of the Via Carpatia to Ukraine with all the consequences for the Ukrainian economy can be considered a major promising project.

 

• Energy.

The project of completing the interconnector from Świnoujście, which can supply gas to Ukraine, as an alternative to the Russian one, and the completion of a power unit at the Khmelnytsky NPP for the needs of Poland (the Ukraine-EU Energomist project), and joint blocking of the Russian NordStream II project.

 

Such cooperation is critically important for Ukraine, as with the current opportunities, according to various experts, it amounts to approximately 2 to 5 billion in possible profit per year for Ukraine, which is approximately 8-15% of the country’s budget.

 

Joint counteraction to hybrid challenges and provocations

For a long time, Russia has been able to deepen the negative perception of Ukrainians in Polish public opinion with the help of controlled agents of influence or the reinforcement of “useful idiots” (politicians, public figures, media, experts, etc.). The Volyn massacre was the main topic of concern. This was compounded by the situation with the massive influx of Ukrainian labor migrants to Poland.

In this area, Ukrainian society needs to focus its attention on this issue as a matter of priority. In cooperation with the Polish side, Ukrainian patriots should create effective mechanisms for breaking down fakes, sharing data, cooperation between politicians and public figures against pro-Russian provocateurs, cooperation between law enforcement agencies and special services, diplomatic and cultural institutions of both countries.

A special role in this is assigned to Ukrainian nationalist organizations, which should purposefully seek and find partners on the Polish side and jointly fight the enemies of Ukrainian-Polish cooperation on both sides of the border.

 

What to do with conflicts?

 

Ukraine needs an active position on the “Polish front”. Ukraine must realize that today and in these circumstances, Poland is more necessary for Ukraine than Ukraine is for Poland.

This can be seen in the example of labor migrants, in terms of joint resistance to Russia, and in Poland’s geopolitical weight. Finally, Ukraine cannot afford another enemy or semi-enemy today, given that Russia is a constant threat to both Poland and Ukraine.

 

To do this, Ukraine needs a plan to improve relations with Poland.

This plan should include, in particular, the following points:

1. Active Ukrainian propaganda in Poland. Ukrainian soft power. Media rapprochement between the two countries. Today, we are not interested in Poland, and Poland is not interested in us. We need to change this.
2. Working with Ukrainian labor migrants in Poland.
3. Active dialog between elites at different levels. The elites must agree to restore dialogue and understanding, with clearly defined red lines for undesirable behavior on both sides.
4. More joint economic, energy, infrastructure, defense, and cultural projects.
5. Joint positive cultural projects. We need institutions, including something like a Ukrainian-Polish cooperation center, a Ukrainian-Polish historical institute, and a cultural foundation to support publications, film projects, and youth exchanges financed from the budgets of both countries.

 

And in 2018, we will be able to make a breakthrough in relations with Poland through cultural events, in particular through the joint celebration of the Battle of Konotop.