The roundtable participants noted the escalation of threatening processes that have begun to have a significant impact on current Ukrainian-Polish relations. The "war of historical memory" that Poland has been waging against Ukraine for 2 years has not yet overshadowed other areas of cooperation, but poses a potential threat to them. The growing negative attitudes …
The roundtable participants noted the escalation of threatening processes that have begun to have a significant impact on current Ukrainian-Polish relations. The “war of historical memory” that Poland has been waging against Ukraine for 2 years has not yet overshadowed other areas of cooperation, but poses a potential threat to them. The growing negative attitudes towards Ukrainians among the Polish population, anti-Ukrainian provocations, the unwillingness of the Polish authorities to restore destroyed Ukrainian graves in Poland and to grant legal status to Ukrainian necropolises, statements about the need to revise the concept of relations, in particular the rejection of the formula “Without a free Ukraine, there will be no free Poland” and the resolute unwillingness to apply the model of Christian reconciliation (“We forgive and ask you to forgive us”) in difficult historical issues make us think about the future of Polish-Ukrainian relations.
According to the participants, Poland has crossed several “red lines” in its behavior toward Ukraine, and further ignoring these actions by the Ukrainian side is unacceptable and unacceptable. The current situation requires the Ukrainian authorities and civil society to analyze various possible models of Poland’s behavior, including those that its leadership would try to implement in the event of a potential full-scale military aggression of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, and to develop a plan of measures that would prevent the hypothetical possibility of an attack on our western borders by the armed forces of our western neighbors.
The participants of the roundtable see the following as the most likely scenarios that could theoretically materialize on our borders:
- Negative: Poland’s imitation of Hungary’s behavior toward Ukraine under V. Orban;
- Neutral: preservation of the status quo, which can be called “war of stories, friendship of geopolitics.”
- Positive: a return to the previous situation, i.e., to the relations between Ukraine and Poland before the PiS party came to power in Poland.
At this point, a neutral scenario seems most likely, but it is necessary to develop a set of measures to prevent a negative scenario and promote a positive one. It should be borne in mind that the Russian Federation’s agents in both countries are constantly working to strengthen negative trends in Polish-Ukrainian relations, in particular, by using various “sacred dates.”
2018 will mark the 75th anniversary of the tragic events in Volyn, which will most likely be used by forces hostile to Ukraine to promote (escalate) negative trends in Polish-Ukrainian relations and organize various kinds of provocations. The primary task of the Ukrainian authorities should be to coordinate the action plan in detail with the Polish side, anticipate possible provocations, develop plans and measures to prevent all kinds of excesses and neutralize their perpetrators.
The participants of the roundtable noted that despite the total dominance of forces in Polish politics that take hostile public steps towards Ukraine, there are politicians, historians and public figures in Poland who are friendly to Ukraine and who can be the points around which adequate and strategically minded Polish citizens consolidate to implement positive and friendly scenarios of interstate Ukrainian-Polish relations.
Methodologically, it was suggested that Poland should be considered a “sick friend” that requires a thoughtful attitude, but which should be unequivocally informed of the existence of relevant “red lines”, further crossing of which by the Polish side will cause an immediate and harsh reaction from Ukraine. The participants of the roundtable generally gave a low assessment of the effectiveness of Ukrainian diplomacy on the Polish-Ukrainian “front” and suggested that the reason for this state of affairs is the lack of a clear strategy and a clear understanding of the importance of Ukrainian-Polish relations.
The Information Center “Intermarium” and the Independent Analytical Center “Ukrainian Strategic Studies” declared their readiness to continue to organize and moderate relevant intellectual discussions and to contribute to the development of the necessary concepts and strategic proposals that will be offered as a “roadmap” for Ukraine’s actions towards Poland for the next 5-10 years.
In particular, the roundtable participants created a working group to develop a document based on the proposals made during the discussion that will highlight the current state of Polish-Ukrainian interstate relations and propose a list of the most urgent actions required by Ukraine in the current situation
